(written in Nov 2008/reposting)
I do not think anyone of us have any disagreement on the historic achievement; when Barack Obama was elected as 44th US President. Even though I was supporting John McCain (me being a big supply-sider: Lower tax leads to prosperity), some where deep inside I am happy about the 'change' Obama is going to bring on the political front. There are two aspects to the change equation; political and business. While I am confident that Obama will be the best American President who will advocate for world peace, green world and better healthcare at the same time I am equally skeptical about his extreme left wing socialistic views.
Don't fix if it ain’t broken! Even though today, Wall Street is broken and Global economy is shaken, I strongly believe that the market will correct itself without any Government regulations. The economic situation in US is bad but is not that bad that it needs any Govt. regulation/intervention. American economy is the most resilient economy in the world. I can understand why Govt. of Iceland and Pakistan is desperate to bring them out of the possible clout of bankruptcy but we are not in that same situation. We are in slight recession and not close to any kind of economic depression or what so ever.
I am scared of couple of things, which the democratic congress and Whitehouse will try to do and will stall the global economy for years to come. Obama, supported by Nancy Pelosi is going to put all possible curb on free trade and increase tariff. On the home front they will increase tax and support labor unions (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122592993592603103.html), increase tax, eliminate capital gain and will not renew Bush Tax Cut policy; which will bankrupt American companies (example GM, Ford) and will further slow down the economy. Dow is down for last two days and Asian Stocks fell for second day (is it due to falling crude oil.. thank God its at $60/barrel or Obama effect?)
US is considered to be the engine of world economy. I am fearful that, due to all these extreme left wing liberal steps to correct the economy, the Rest of World (RoW) might suffer.
If US slows down further, its going to take down RoW with it.
Monday, November 12, 2012
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Obama (Big Data) sets the Stage for New age Election Campaign
In the 2012 Presidential election, Nate Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Silver's predictions of U.S. Senate races were correct in 31 of 33 states; he made the wrong prediction in North Dakota and Montana.
Obama proves (once again) that how social media, digital campaign (2008 general election) and data-driven campaign (2012) can play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of the election. He did it during the Democratic nomination (defeating Hillary Clinton) and then Republican John McCain in the general election and now republican Mitt Romney in the 2012 Presidential election.
When we look back at the last 10 months of Presidential election campaign, we cannot ignore to see how smartly Obama worked (compared to Mitt Romney) get into the office for the 2nd term. He used Social analytics, social media and Big Data crunching to run his campaign, raise fund (remember dinner with Sarah Jessica Parker and George Clooney?).
Below is the analysis of Romney vs. Obama in the social media, which shows how Obama consistently maintained a substantial lead in social media:
Sharing one glaring data point on the impact of on-ground, smart campaign (based on the outcome of data analytics, social media sentiments etc). In Florida, Mitt Romney won pretty much in every county except Hilsborogh (Tampa, St Pete area), Orlando area, entire Southern Florda (Ft Lauderdale and Miami). My heart goes out for Mitt Romney, he must have spent millions of dollars and huge campaign time in ensuring that he covers most part of Florida to get all those rural votes but Obama must have campaigned where the majority of the population (about 50%) of FL are in the Tampa, Orlando and Miami area! So, there you go, even though Mitt Romney spent millions on campaign but that was not targetted enough to ensure that these highly populated cities vote for the republican party. This is just one data point on how Obama's smart campaigning paid off. If we look at all the swing states (Ohio, Nevada etc.), the similar story repeats; most of the highly populated areas went with Obama and rural areas went with Romney.
US demographic is more diverse (in terms of races, sex, age) than ever before (a representative split is shown below):
Black population: 13%
Hispanic population: 10% (and growing)
White population: 73% (and shrinking)
Asian: 4% (and growing)
Women: 155 million
Men: 151 million
Population with age under 20 = 27%
Population with age above 65 = 12%
Median age = 36.9 years
So, Obama understood (long back!) if you have to get (re)elected to the white house then you cannot ignore Hispanic, Black, young and women voters.
Definitely, data-driven decision-making played a big role in 2012 general election. Obama proved the rhetoric - "Work Smart (not Hard) to achieve the same or more". It will be interesting to watch, how the future of election campaigns shape up.
Source:
http://www.campaignpop.com/
http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/07/tech/web/obama-campaign-tech-team/index.html
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Obama proves (once again) that how social media, digital campaign (2008 general election) and data-driven campaign (2012) can play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of the election. He did it during the Democratic nomination (defeating Hillary Clinton) and then Republican John McCain in the general election and now republican Mitt Romney in the 2012 Presidential election.
When we look back at the last 10 months of Presidential election campaign, we cannot ignore to see how smartly Obama worked (compared to Mitt Romney) get into the office for the 2nd term. He used Social analytics, social media and Big Data crunching to run his campaign, raise fund (remember dinner with Sarah Jessica Parker and George Clooney?).
Below is the analysis of Romney vs. Obama in the social media, which shows how Obama consistently maintained a substantial lead in social media:
Sharing one glaring data point on the impact of on-ground, smart campaign (based on the outcome of data analytics, social media sentiments etc). In Florida, Mitt Romney won pretty much in every county except Hilsborogh (Tampa, St Pete area), Orlando area, entire Southern Florda (Ft Lauderdale and Miami). My heart goes out for Mitt Romney, he must have spent millions of dollars and huge campaign time in ensuring that he covers most part of Florida to get all those rural votes but Obama must have campaigned where the majority of the population (about 50%) of FL are in the Tampa, Orlando and Miami area! So, there you go, even though Mitt Romney spent millions on campaign but that was not targetted enough to ensure that these highly populated cities vote for the republican party. This is just one data point on how Obama's smart campaigning paid off. If we look at all the swing states (Ohio, Nevada etc.), the similar story repeats; most of the highly populated areas went with Obama and rural areas went with Romney.
US demographic is more diverse (in terms of races, sex, age) than ever before (a representative split is shown below):
Black population: 13%
Hispanic population: 10% (and growing)
White population: 73% (and shrinking)
Asian: 4% (and growing)
Women: 155 million
Men: 151 million
Population with age under 20 = 27%
Population with age above 65 = 12%
Median age = 36.9 years
So, Obama understood (long back!) if you have to get (re)elected to the white house then you cannot ignore Hispanic, Black, young and women voters.
Definitely, data-driven decision-making played a big role in 2012 general election. Obama proved the rhetoric - "Work Smart (not Hard) to achieve the same or more". It will be interesting to watch, how the future of election campaigns shape up.
Source:
http://www.campaignpop.com/
http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/07/tech/web/obama-campaign-tech-team/index.html
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Thursday, November 8, 2012
President's 2nd term To-Do List
President's 2nd term To-Do List
1. Deficit Reduction
2. Income tax reform (more tax for families making $250K+ per year)
3. Corporate Tax reform
4. Immigration reform
5. Education reform
I will be writing more on these in details.
1. Deficit Reduction
2. Income tax reform (more tax for families making $250K+ per year)
3. Corporate Tax reform
4. Immigration reform
5. Education reform
I will be writing more on these in details.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Week of Halloween 2012 ...
This week was really busy for me; quite an interesting week/
My heart goes out to all the 50+ million people affected by the Super storm Sandy. I guess, no one (including me) expected this to be such a disastrous storm. I was under the impression that Sandy is going to bring lots of rain and there will be flooding and that's it. I read somewhere, that the size of Sandy was the size of continent Europe!
Nothing like coming home!
I was feeling really bad that, this week, I could not spend time with my family to celebrate the Indian festival Kumara Purnima(a harvest festival celebrated on the full moon day of the Hindu lunar month of Ashvin (September–October). It marks the end of monsoon) and obviously Halloween. Bought the pumpkin last week to do the carving with my daughter (on 10/6, she turned 4 years!) but could not do it until this morning.
Today, having a relaxed Saturday morning (trying to forget about Sandy) with my daughter...this morning, we carved the pumpkin/made a happy face :) (Yes a Happy face to forget all about Sandy) while listening to Mumford & Sons (love the song 'Awake my Soul')
Looking forward for an exciting next week. Finally, the Presidential election will be over! I will be teaching in Monte Vista Elementary (Santa Ana CA) on 11/8 :)
My heart goes out to all the 50+ million people affected by the Super storm Sandy. I guess, no one (including me) expected this to be such a disastrous storm. I was under the impression that Sandy is going to bring lots of rain and there will be flooding and that's it. I read somewhere, that the size of Sandy was the size of continent Europe!
Nothing like coming home!
I was feeling really bad that, this week, I could not spend time with my family to celebrate the Indian festival Kumara Purnima(a harvest festival celebrated on the full moon day of the Hindu lunar month of Ashvin (September–October). It marks the end of monsoon) and obviously Halloween. Bought the pumpkin last week to do the carving with my daughter (on 10/6, she turned 4 years!) but could not do it until this morning.
Today, having a relaxed Saturday morning (trying to forget about Sandy) with my daughter...this morning, we carved the pumpkin/made a happy face :) (Yes a Happy face to forget all about Sandy) while listening to Mumford & Sons (love the song 'Awake my Soul')
Looking forward for an exciting next week. Finally, the Presidential election will be over! I will be teaching in Monte Vista Elementary (Santa Ana CA) on 11/8 :)
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